Updated weekly AFDR 26mar11-party general market This week, after the parenthesis of the last
the selective Ibex 35 English has become the band's conservative recession / depression where we are from before the summer of 2009.
And this is right.
Even more,
believe that if other European selective indexes have been able to get out of the current phase in which we find ourselves, to enter the traditional stage (and some of them even the conservative side of it), the Ibex35 has its own merits to do the same quickly .
Despite having a bunch (with apologies to the gang) policy, which, at least from the point of view, it is certainly the worst in more than seventy years, at least.
The reality is that the Ibex35
European index is more closely linked to emerging , for more than 57% of the income of its members is generated outside Spain, especially in Latin American countries, where the economic situation is far from be able to qualify as a crisis. SAN
(25.8% and 20.82% respectively) + TEF (24.3% and 23.58% respectively) + BBVA (16.3% and 9.72% respectively), true multi-national corporations based in Spain, accounting for 66.4% of the trading volume of the Ibex 35 and the 54.12% of its market capitalization weighting.
Of course, its divisions and national activities suffer, much, with the current recession which we have been this reckless gang of political, theoretical and illuminated. BUT
have international diversification of such importance (in any of the three national activity is even 30% of the total, and the extreme case is found in
SAN , for whom Spain represents 15% of multinational activity, the third source of profits, after Brazil and UK)),
than offset them. They will continue compensating them
.
Let the facts and actual data:
numbers and calculations at the close of last Friday we suggest:
1.-The yield
sovereign assets has risen generally to all sovereign assets, but very different:
.)
The yield of the English bond 2PB rose in the week, but did so to a lesser extent than that of sovereign assets of the central countries, so humbled differential with 189pb the German bund.
In real terms, the bond yield is 1.525% level, far from its historical average,
.)
on the German bund has risen 11pb (3.5% per week), bringing its level to 1.166% real, which is not only below its historical average, but also the Germans deflated bond (a meaningless aberration),
.)
bond and the "use" has risen 16pb (4.9% weekly ), raising the real level 1.312%, also less than twice its historical average, and the deflated bond "use" (although in this case is justified by massive purchases of The Fed and IyII QE).
Despite the rise in nominal yields, as can be observed in all cases the actual yield sovereign assets is well below its historical average , so clearly allows an increase of the nominal interest (except inflation to fall), without this must be understood as a problem. Everything
published using the rise of sovereign asset yield as an excuse for bajonazo potential of equity markets makes no sense, and smells like pens drones. 2.-
With this, the nominal yield weighted asset base applicable to sovereign entities has risen only marginally Ibex35 (only 0.6% per week) to just the 5%
(do not remember giving me such a figure just another time).
In real terms, the sovereign yield weighted asset base for institutions Ibex35 (1.352%) is
far from its historical average .
3.-At Friday's close, with a consensus that rises to 5% (I still believe very optimistic consensus) BPA11 core growth of the members of the Ibex 35, the facts tell us that we are at a level of contributions PER11
means of 9.793 times the BPA11 (remember that
historical average amounts to 14.1 times, ie over 44% more ).
This means that:
.)
earnings yield on the Ibex 35 reaches the 10.211% nominal (!!!), .)
earnings equivalent to a real yield of 6.382% (!!!), . ), ie a
real yield differential with the sovereign yield weighted asset base for institutions of 486pb Ibex35 (!!!),
.) remember that the historical average difference is both real yields
only 238 bp (which, together with average real rate of sovereign assets together makes a real rate of traditional joint 5 / 5, 5% to offset the risk of prime assets in equities).
words, the current differential, which is more than double its level, historic, clearly corresponds to periods of strong black economic recession combined with high inflation and / or panic political / social ...
... and
much I swear and swearing, and for many dis-qualifications that we put the des-government we have in Spain and the vast majority of its 17 Españita ... I sincerely believe not justified in any way.
Still less
occurs precisely in the selective index more internationally diversified (more than other European indices, and even more than the indices "Use").
Another significant fact is that, if observed,
the current real earnings yield (and its current difference with the real yield of sovereign assets) is important enough to support an increase of power without having to suffer contributions.
For these reasons, it is clearly justified
equity markets (and, especially, English) have increased their contributions despite all the macro events and geopolitical pressures.
As we said last week, the situation was historically aberrant .
On a few occasions we encountered a similar situation this difference between structural economic science and reality of Don Mercado (March 2003 to March 2009), and sooner or later had to be renewed.
However, it is clear,
AFDR by the rise of this week should not mean only the first step in the right direction .
The lower level (10,416
) of the band conservative in that we are still closer (the travel
bearish potential 2.7%) than its higher level (
11217.2), which provides a tour
upside of 4.7% (assuming that remain current inflation assumptions and yield sovereign assets) .
We see the view of analysts other currents, and the market participants :
* 1 *
friends ATs are mostly neutral, with a deflection midway between the bulls and bears. This can be considered a step towards AFDR since last week was almost unanimous bassist.
* 2 * The AFFS
friends raise their upward bias. Believe that we approach a period in which the seasonal pattern is bullish on tax issue "use" as well as corporate operations have increased, the insiders have left to be bearish, and institutional positions as well.
* 3 * For actual participants
:
.) Indeed, as noted in recent collaborations, both insiders
participants (see the collaboration http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03 / insiders.html) as
institutional investors (the last mention you can see it in collaboration http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03/comentarios-mercado-25mar11.html PD) have moved to a position Neutral.
.) For
gazelles, the AAII survey tells us (see the collaboration http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03/comentarios-21mar11.html) that have increased their pessimism (as seen on Monday had even become mostly bearish), which is considered bullish sign.
.) Similarly, the strong hands
CTAs (see the collaboration http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03/comentarios-21mar11.html) are upward (56%), but their optimism has fallen coyunturalmente-no we can ignore the proximity to natural and nuclear disaster Japanese, and the start of military action in Libya. If we see their average monthly (which is real given the predictive value of temporary circumstances because it avoids the short-sighted), which is still bullish with a 60.75% level.
* 4 * In terms specifically our Ibex35
Interestingly think:
.) The turnover
bullish sessions has been very important (especially Monday's session, which originated the rotation), while negotiating the only day Bassist-Friday-was very low.
.) The
borrowed shares outstanding (instrument used by bassists strong hands), has grown little in TEF and BBVA, while even fallen in SAN.
short, we see that both analysts and participants appear to be reducing its outlook / attitude downward, with bull minority tendency.
I have not the ball of the future.
But I do believe firmly in the science of economic structure.
And the facts have shown me over and over again.
And the only time I chickened out, I paid the consequences.
why I can affirm, and affirm, that sooner or later we will have a reaction to put things in place .
is absurd and untenable to continue with the active "no risk" overestimated (the English bond is also in real terms, unless inflation falls seriously), while, in parallel, international assets domiciled in Spain (which, even as the case of SAN, have lower cost of default insurance commitments) have an intrinsic underestimation aberrant.
This afternoon we continue with the shareholder, greetings, and enjoy this Saturday's spring
