With the gap opening and stability of sovereign asset yield "safe" , the band have become conservative in the recession / depression .
This gives a positive breath, as we expected the weekend.
But we are still very close limt the minimum, so that should not be trusted.
If anyone might want to personally
* I have increased the positions (up to 46% capacity), but strongly
* coverage of 67% of them (on an average 10331).
* Investments are still basic coverage, stop having raised the 10,400 level (which is where + / - should now be the limit for passing the pessimistic world recession / depression).
will see,
As I said, I have friends who do know the energy issue.
Undoubtedly, the primum inter pares, is Roberto Centeno, who joins its broad curriculum experiential executive and management in the sector, with an experience of Economic Structure over 40 years.
Today has published its views in the article "Nuclear Risk a joke compared to liquid gas, which can be read in http://www.cotizalia.com/disparate-economico/2011/riesgo-nuclear -joke-compared-liquid-20110321-5120.html
Greetings,
The turnover today is VERY strong (TEF now exceeds 1.8% of its capital, and SAN 1, 2%).
This gives greater importance, if anything, the outcome of the battle being waged today in the equity markets between bulls and bears.
Notably TEF takes several days of heavy trading (last week exceeded 6.8% of its capital), coinciding with the rumor that we discussed about the possible acquisition of ownership of the sovereign fund of Qatar ... ¿?
Meanwhile, at 14:21 the English bond yield has fallen 1PB from its "closure" on Friday, and the German bund has risen 4PB ... consequently reducing the differential between the two in 193pb.
Until then
CFNI Vds.
You know the importance I give to this activity index national economic "use" made by the Chicago Fed, which I consider the most complete and reliable. Today has gone
posted for the February (you can see in http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/cfnai/2011/cfnai_march2011.pdf).
* In regard to the monthly indicator , the resulting index is -0.04, slightly worse than last month -0.01 (reviewed in much better than the original -0.16). Or so in terms total is down compared to last month.
* With respect to quarterly average mobile (which is the most followed by all analysts to avoid imbalances STS) the index reaches the level +0.11, +0.05 better than the previous month (which has also been revised upwards from the original -0.11).
summary, it appears that economic activity "use" is above its historical trend (which is the level 0.00) .
Good news.
Today we have a lot of news about performance of participants in equity markets :
* 1 * AAII survey of estimates of gazelles clearly indicates that they increase pessimism. In fact, the bulls have dropped last week from 36.0% to 28.5%, while the bears have risen from 32.3% to 40.1%. That is, the spread has gone from bullish to +3.7% from 7.8% bearish, which is a very clear indication that rises ahead interesting.
* 2 * There is also major news by institutional holders. As a friend points the Carpathian on its website last Friday, after the quarterly due dates of products, sales decreased slightly, while aggressively purchases increased (although the balance at the close on Friday was still seller).
* 3 * With respect to the important Market Bullish Consensus Vane (of CTAs), a clear break in its aggressive bullish forecast many previous weeks.
No doubt the extra-market events strongly affected the attitude of the CTAs.
However, the resulting ending balance remained bullish weekly (56% ), although still far from the neutrality of the 50% anyway. Just this week
becomes more important the monthly average (which is real given the predictive value because it avoids the exceptional circumstances) which is still bullish with a 60.75% level .
* 4 * The Renta 4 friends have changed their ideal portfolio Ibex35 . They have given
Inditex entry and Santander, replacing Ebro Foods and REE. Regarding
Inditex, expect the results to be published on Wednesday, "rates continue to show double-digit growth and the confidence to reiterate its policy regarding the expansion plans for the coming years."
For its part, the choice of Santander responds to these experts believe the financial sector could make up positions before a probable European Council agreement on the Stabilization Plan, allowing for greater restraint of sovereign risk.
The portfolio is comprised of (in alphabetical order):
Acerinox (which I recommend through ALB, so also participate in ACS and Prosegur, and going with a sharp discount to their NAV),
Ferrovial,
Inditex,
Santander and Telefonica.
* 5 * Meanwhile it is interesting that JP Morgan advises buying Inditex, Telefónica and Santander .
with it the three bosses "use" (BofA-ML & Goldman & JP Morgan) have advocated publicly in a few days to buy SAN and TEF. Of the three European brass (DB & HSBC & UBS) only the latter did not take such a recommendation for those corporations with global scope.
Greetings,
For my part, I positions increased to> 50% capacity without changing the coverage (going down to 61% of positions).
Greetings,
Trading volume fell not .
In the case of the three musketeers:
* BBVA (+91 M shares) 2.1% capital
* TEF (+93 M shares) 2.00% capital
SAN (+111 M shares) 1.4% capital
Greetings ,
A dozen English brands, led by Santander, Movistar and BBVA, appear among the 500 most valuable brands worldwide , according to the ranking prepared by "Brand Finance ', which puts Google as the most valuable teaching, ahead of Microsoft and Wal-Mart, which gives it the first post he occupied last year.
* Specifically, Santander ranks 15 ranking with a brand value $ 26.150M (€ 18.460M) , making the entity Cantabria in the 4 th financial institution worth mark, second only to Bank of America (6), Wells Fargo (9) and HSBC (11).
* On the other hand, Movistar is number 51, with a brand value of $ 14.935M (€ 10.543M), which serves to position itself as the 6 th global operator brand value, second by Vodafone (5), AT & T (10), Verizon (12), China Mobile (25) and Orange (29). *
BBVA ranks is 79, twelve positions below the place occupied in 2010 with a brand value of $ 10.728M (€ 7.573M).
Greetings,
NOTE at the end
* 1 * negotiation of the three musketeers in today has been:
* SAN = 138.60 M shares (= 1, 64% capital),
* TEF = 105.55 M shares (capital = 2.31%),
* BBVA shares = 100.32 M (= 2.23% capital).
In my opinion, I think that trading volume reinforces the value of higher today for their contributions.
* 2 * The "closing" of today English bond yield has been lower than Friday 2PB.
The bund yield, by contrast, has risen 6pb today.
result, the differential between the bond yield and the bund fell today 8PB (up to 190pb).
* 3 * NO has been no relevant changes in borrowed shares outstanding SAN-TEF-BBVA.
Goodnight
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