Unfortunately, today we are forced to admit that have entered the market in the world pessimistic depressive phase recessive.
And this only happens when the economy is in deep recession, or when the hysteria dominates the performance of the participants. Choose Vds. the cause.
funny thing is that this situation is unique to the English selective , more precisely the index linked to emerging countries, with over 57% of the income of its members is generated outside Spain, especially in Latin American countries, where the economic situation is far from being described as in crisis.
And this important detail we should pay attention.
Despite having a bunch (with apologies to the gang) policy, which, at least from the point of view, it is certainly the worst in more than seventy years, at least. SAN
(25.8% and 20.82% respectively) + TEF (24.3% and 23.58% respectively) + BBVA (16.3% and 9.72% respectively), corporate real multinationals based in Spain, accounting for 66.4% of the trading volume of the Ibex 35, and 54.12% of its market capitalization weighting.
Of course, its divisions and national activities suffer, much, with the current recession which we have been this reckless gang of political, theoretical and illuminated. BUT
have international diversification of such importance (in any of the three national activity is even 30% of total), more than compensates them.
and continue compensating them.
Let the facts and actual data:
numbers and calculations at the close of last Friday we suggest:
1.-The sovereign asset yield declined in general for all sovereign assets:
.) The yield of the English bond 28pb fell in the week (more than 5.1% in one week), reducing to 198pb differential with the German bund.
In real terms the yield has fallen to 1.506%, further away from its historical average,
.) On the German bund 4PB has dropped, falling to 1.058% real, which is a lower level not only below its historical average, but also the Germans deflated bond (a meaningless aberration),
.) and the bond "use" 11pb also dropped, falling to 1.156% of its real level, well below its historical average, and less than the deflated bond "use" (although in this case is justified by massive purchases of IyII Fed and QE).
As you can see, in all cases the real yield of sovereign assets is well below its historical average , so clearly allows an increase of the nominal interest (unless inflation down), without need seen as a problem. Everything
published using the rise of sovereign asset yield as an excuse for a potential bajonazo of equity markets makes no sense, and smells like pens drones.
2.-With this, the nominal yield sovereign weighted asset base for institutions Ibex35 has dropped significantly this week (4.98%) to 4.968% .
In real terms, the sovereign yield weighted asset base for institutions Ibex35 (1.3205% ) greatly increases their low compared to historical average.
3.-At Friday's close, with a consensus that rises to 4% core growth BPA11 of the members of the Ibex 35, the facts tell us that we level quote that means a PER11 of 9.444 times the BPA11 (remember that the historical average amounts to 14.1 times, ie more than 49% more ).
This means that:
.) Earnings yield the Ibex 35 reached 10.589% nominal (!!!),
.) earnings equivalent to a real yield of 6.746% (!!!),
.) ie real yield differential with the sovereign yield weighted asset base for institutions of 524pb Ibex35 (!!!),
.) remember that the historical average difference of two real yields 238pb is only (which together with average real rate of sovereign assets together makes a real rate of traditional joint + / -5% to offset the risk of prime equity assets).
words, the current differential , which is more than double its level, historic, clearly corresponds to the dark periods of strong economic recession combined with high inflation and / or panic political / social ...
... and , as much as I swear and swearing, and for many dis-qualifications that we put the des-government we have in Spain and the vast majority of its 17 Españita ... I sincerely believe that there is no justification in any way. Fewer still
occurs precisely in the more diversified internationally selective index (more than other European indices, and even more than the indices "Use").
short, nothing can be added by AFDR. Spare us the "R" .
As we said before, we are in a situation of hysteria / panic that can not be analyzed in terms of structural economic science.
All we can do is:
a) describe the situation as it is, and identify the level that would come out of it (10447.9) , that is, a stone's throw (only 1.16 % of rise), as long as we continue with the current asset bubble sovereign (so we can define when real yields are even lower than circumstantially assets deflated),
b) and also describe in my "days" of stock life I I found on a few occasions in a similar situation this difference between the structural economic science and reality of Don Market.
remember such moments:
.) In the summer of 87 the situation was so absurd as the present, but conversely,
.) same thing happened to the end of 2000, 99/inicio ,
.) And again it happened again, but in the sense that now, late 2002 and 2008 ... Fortunately
in all of them clearly AFDR
warned me (and all of them positioned correctly ... except me on the last occasion, in which the failure of the end of 2002, I chickened out and came to believe that the structural science was being overcome by the facts ... and the beast attacked me with the wrong foot, reacting belatedly).
As you can see, in all, after a period of suffering, latent losses, and doubts ... in the end the "homo sapiens" beat "homo histericus" .
I have not the ball of the future.
But I do believe firmly in the science of economic structure.
And the facts have shown me over and over again.
And the only time I chickened out, I paid the consequences .
why I can affirm, and affirm, that sooner or later we will have a reaction to put things in place .
is absurd and untenable to continue with the active "no risk" Overrated (and so is English bond in real terms, unless inflation falls seriously), while, in parallel, international assets domiciled in Spain (which even have lower cost of default insurance commitments) have an intrinsic underestimation aberrant.
This afternoon we continue with the shareholder, greetings, and enjoy this Sunday's spring
NOTE
Encouraged by what we share a friend Jordi "We got it now - DJ, SP DAX and say: Yes IBEX also " (see http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03/subimos-ya-dj-spy-dax-dicen-si-el-ibex.html) and before he exposed his views on the Ibex 35,
... I decided to calculate the upper limit conservative band (which, as we have seen, NO we, being situated English selection index below its lower limit) of the recession / depression .
The upper limit of this band is conservative (late Friday) 11254.2 level (ie 8.96% of distance.
That should be (AFDR) the primary objective that we would have if upward rotation) .
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