* 1 * The values \u200b\u200bthat undoubtedly deserve AFDR overweight, having an aberrant intrinsic underestimation (PER11 less than 7.5 times), with an earnings yield of 13.3% nominal , equivalent to 9.4% in real terms, ie 6.2 times the actual yield bond Kingdom of Spain (!) (despite a lower cost of default insurance on it), a level equivalent to periods of financial crash: SAN
* (*)
* BBVA (*)
* 2 * values \u200b\u200bthat deserve a neutral weighting, or, if desired, with slight overweight, having a significant underestimation inherent to international and / or sectoral (PER11 less than 8.25 times), with an earnings yield of 12.12% in nominal terms, equivalent to 8.2% real , ie 5 4 times the actual yield of the bond of the Kingdom of Spain: MAP
* (**)
* 3 * Values \u200b\u200bthat deserve to be in the portfolios, but with underweight, or if you wish to neutral weight, having underestimation inherent to international and / or sectoral (PER11 less than 9.15 times), with an earnings yield of 10.93% nominal, equivalent to 7.07% real, ie almost 4.7 times the yield real the bond of the Kingdom of Spain): TEF
* * ABG
(***) (**)
He further stocks with above-average PER11 Ibex35, but with a earnings yield above 6 % real :
* FCC (**)
* ELE (**)
* ENG *
ACS
* GAS
* OHL (**)
* REP
(*) I consider it Importantly, despite the worsening of the real and psychological situation of the English economy in general and the English financial sector in particular (whose punishment accounting is reflected in the new financial statements published), the consensus of analysts has slightly improved its fundamental outlook for the two macro internationally diversified banks established in Spain on the ground that, even in the worst case of domestic market expansion and increased market where the quasi have 100% of their investments over the past ten years, more than compensate.
In fact, the current consensus PO (78 analysts, according to Bloomberg, and Reuters FacSet) for SAN is € 10.22 per share (ie a minimum travel upside of 23.2%), which would mean a PER11 of 8.18 times for a BPA11 of € 1.25.
In case of BBVA, the PO current consensus (61 analysts) to BBVA is € 10.15 per share (ie a minimum upside potential route of 25.1%), which would mean a PER11 of 8.25 times for a BPA11 of € 1.23. Both are currently listed
even below its book value (at end 2010 was € 8.58 to € 8.34 for SAN and BBVA). We talk about book value, and not replacement value, which would be much higher.
personally think that this consensus are very pessimistic, and I think it will be revised upwards. After my update AF these days, I have every confidence that both entities will improve seriously its BPAs in 2011.
.) On the one hand, with enhanced operational scope,
.) Moreover, the penalty will not book this year,
.) And, thirdly, to improve its efficiency ratio (in part due to synergies). Therefore
give them a joint weighting of 50% stock portfolio, aggressively overweight in SAN (whose apparent intrinsic underestimation has been demonstrated by the weight given to 1.9% of its Chilean subsidiary to launch an IPO for institutional investors purchased mostly by Chilean institutions knowledgeable asset value = 14.8% of market capitalization of the entire group SAN).
(**) Note: double asterisk note to those who are controlled by a natural person or legal entity, which will depend on the entity. (***)
should take into account what is stated in my contribution "Mirages accounting for lack of real benefits (see http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/02/espejismos-contables-falta-de.html ), because both values \u200b\u200bin 2010 have been engineered to use accounting to show a profit brilliant thing I can not repeat in 2011.
addition, in the case of TEF should take into account that in collaboration "Beware of TEF-confirmation, which can be seen in http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/02/cuidado-con-tef-confirmacion.html.
it is also true that your price is too low for a classical value "cash cow" and are "Matilda", with additional possibilities of growth factors.
(NOTE) And do not forget
ALB, whose share price means an excessive punishment on its NAV (which, as demonstrated by placement of a package of ACS, NOT deserve it), including significant liquidity.
believe that ALB is a bet on how to bet door prize values \u200b\u200bvaried all diversified internationally, and has excellent intrinsic value .
Good Night, and who has luck tomorrow (it will mean good news, at least for the Japanese and the Libyans),
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