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Changing strategy

In the final part of my collaboration Comments 25mar11 market (see http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=8837389672764362783&postID=5701839927551032757) on Friday wrote:

"" "Unfortunately, I am very busy ( I recall that my move is day 29 and I have many things to do and prepare, including medical records, etc), and this precludes me be online and able to actively manage .
result, strategic decisions have taken :
1 .- remain intact the investment .
For now remain without coverage .
I put the 10500 stop level (which is where I estimate should be the lower limit of the band in which we operate), which, interestingly, coincides with the view ATD Jordi friend (when he says "upside objectives towards which we tend. remain in effect until the 10512 lost "). 2.-
will maintain a level of equivalent positions + / -50% building (I'll resetting when I connect, and now are at 46%).
3.-These positions have a strong coverage of 60/70% of positions (I'll resetting when I connect, and now are in 67 %)."""



AFDR After the upgrade this weekend I changed the strategy for this week :

* 1 * Keep investment without basic coverage, but recess for the stop level to 10,420 (instead of 10,500).

* 2 * Increase positions up to + / -70% of my ability . I will make the correction
as Monday at the opening.

* 3 * reduce coverage to 50% general positions.
and put a stop to double match the 10,416 and 11,217 levels marking the AFDR . I will make the correction
the same Monday opening.

* 4 * After several updates made today, some weights edit:
.) SAN : confirmed its recommendation on weight (consider a tour pessimistic minimum upside of 20%)
.) BBVA : recess its recommendation to neutral weighting
.) TEF : increased its rating to neutral weighting
.) MAP: keep recommendation
neutral weighting.) ALB (including ACS + ACX + PSG +...) increase its recommendation to over weight (given the current rebate on their NAV, is an advantageous way to enter the diversified equity-all of them are internationally diversified, with significant initial discount).

Greetings,

Beetel Phones Service Center Mumbai

MARKETING, GENERAL TRADING

I. Marketing Overview

1. What is marketing?

Organization of resources to plan, execute and assess needs and desires of a target market more efficiently than competitors. The marketing process before production begins, it manifests in production quantity, price, distribution, among others.


2. What are the most important history of trade?

merchant class, including those devoted exclusively to the external appearance, behavior changes, the centralization of trade in the city of Santiago.


3. What is the goal of marketing?

Meet-and-build consumer needs while achieving economic goals to the company generally by the timing of various activities.


4. What and what are the tasks of marketing?

must satisfy the claims of the group to which it is addressed, investigated thoroughly, and it brings together the main activities of the company. Thus, the main task is to regulate the demand for products the company achieve the goals: where there is no demand should stimulate desire, where latency is encouraged, where should revitalize declining. In essence, look at the framework and actions launched concrete and direct connection therewith.


5. What is the concept of sales?

The assumption of non-realization of goods up to start promotional work before the sale date. The goal is to reach consumers for each product, and to induce the buyer to become so again.


6. What are the variables we controlled and not controllable marketing? Endogenous

or within the company there are several, include market research, products, brands, packages, discounts, prices, distribution, advertising, promotion, public relations, services and guarantees. Are exogenous economic and political aspects, social expectations, intermediaries, and so on.


7. What is marketing mix?

more explicit variables which has charge of marketing are product, price, place and promotion. The focus and tilt that can give them, as well as the interaction determines the mercadológica mixture. "


II. Marketing management


1. What is marketing planning?

Considers and makes the changes inherent in this issue and the economic environment to develop plans or strategies aimed to solve problems that arise.


2. Why is planning important in marketing?

If planning is done with correction will prevent problems before they arise and not solve them once they have arisen. Responsible for making decisions depend

3. What are the steps in marketing planning?

establish priorities, identify key issues, anticipate changes and plan strategies.


4. How are forecasts of marketing? By

plans to analyze sales and market share, including programmed decisions and unscheduled.


5. What is the organization of marketing?

is the adaptation of the marketing process to the particular characteristics of the company and the market. There is the organization for basic functions, for small businesses and is the only one that takes as a starting point for the organization. They are also the organization by region, division of territory, by product, with a remarkable variety of items and customers, according to their condition. Typically, the use of four types of organization


6. What kind of organizational structure is applicable to the marketing department?

differs greatly. At first it was an area barely noticeable and was added to the traditional sales. Gradually took presence to be equivalent to finance or production. Today, marketing is the core, all activities revolve around it. Although much will depend on the situation of the company which is talking.


7. What should be the direction of marketing? Focused

make decisions and solve problems. Problem solving can be in different ways and the decision-making is unique. In this concept there are two: making scheduled and unscheduled. Time management includes planning, execution and control of marketers plan.


8. What rules should be followed in controlling the marketing?

control objectives and compare the facts for that operation must implement measures and assessment against the standards to reduce the gap between ideal and real. Presents several measures to this effect as the measures of effectiveness and efficiency (comparison between sales and costs), and studies of market share, the same cost of marketing and corrective actions.


III. The environment of marketing


1. What is the importance of knowing the environment which develops marketing?

training is the basis of objectives and involves knowledge of the processes carried out on it. can be achieved by controlling changes that occur and reach equilibrium.


2. What are the factors in the environment of marketing?

The macro and micro environment. The former include the economic and political conditions, suppliers, dealers and consumers


3. Why is it important political and legal environment?

are the strongest influence on marketing. The state has established laws governing the interaction between businesses and consumers, so government decisions that impact directly on how to sell, price and distribution pillars of marketing.


4. What influences the social environment?

The company states what you want or not want. The marketing then you should take your pulse for guiding each of its functions. This will satisfy needs


5. Why is it important to the economic environment?

is an external stimulus that affects the employee. The important variables such as interest, inflation and money exchange rate determines the income and thus the ability of buyers. Also finds the route and plans to continue production and distribution of it.


6. Why are major suppliers? Awarded

production inputs and therefore production itself. It is important to study them thoroughly and not rely on a few, but diversify as much as possible


7. How does the technology affect decisions by market principles?

technology directly affects the prices, packaging, pricing, distribution, advertising and above all tastes. Indirectly to the income and taxes. Technological innovation must be taken

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Updated weekly AFDR 26mar11-party general market

This week, after the parenthesis of the last the selective Ibex 35 English has become the band's conservative recession / depression where we are from before the summer of 2009.
And this is right.

Even more, believe that if other European selective indexes have been able to get out of the current phase in which we find ourselves, to enter the traditional stage (and some of them even the conservative side of it), the Ibex35 has its own merits to do the same quickly .
Despite having a bunch (with apologies to the gang) policy, which, at least from the point of view, it is certainly the worst in more than seventy years, at least.
The reality is that the Ibex35 European index is more closely linked to emerging , for more than 57% of the income of its members is generated outside Spain, especially in Latin American countries, where the economic situation is far from be able to qualify as a crisis. SAN

(25.8% and 20.82% respectively) + TEF (24.3% and 23.58% respectively) + BBVA (16.3% and 9.72% respectively), true multi-national corporations based in Spain, accounting for 66.4% of the trading volume of the Ibex 35 and the 54.12% of its market capitalization weighting.
Of course, its divisions and national activities suffer, much, with the current recession which we have been this reckless gang of political, theoretical and illuminated. BUT
have international diversification of such importance (in any of the three national activity is even 30% of the total, and the extreme case is found in SAN , for whom Spain represents 15% of multinational activity, the third source of profits, after Brazil and UK)), than offset them. They will continue compensating them
.



Let the facts and actual data:

numbers and calculations at the close of last Friday we suggest:
1.-The yield sovereign assets has risen generally to all sovereign assets, but very different:
.) The yield of the English bond 2PB rose in the week, but did so to a lesser extent than that of sovereign assets of the central countries, so humbled differential with 189pb the German bund.
In real terms, the bond yield is 1.525% level, far from its historical average,
.) on the German bund has risen 11pb (3.5% per week), bringing its level to 1.166% real, which is not only below its historical average, but also the Germans deflated bond (a meaningless aberration),
.) bond and the "use" has risen 16pb (4.9% weekly ), raising the real level 1.312%, also less than twice its historical average, and the deflated bond "use" (although in this case is justified by massive purchases of The Fed and IyII QE).

Despite the rise in nominal yields, as can be observed in all cases the actual yield sovereign assets is well below its historical average , so clearly allows an increase of the nominal interest (except inflation to fall), without this must be understood as a problem. Everything
published using the rise of sovereign asset yield as an excuse for bajonazo potential of equity markets makes no sense, and smells like pens drones. 2.-


With this, the nominal yield weighted asset base applicable to sovereign entities has risen only marginally Ibex35 (only 0.6% per week) to just the 5% (do not remember giving me such a figure just another time).
In real terms, the sovereign yield weighted asset base for institutions Ibex35 (1.352%) is far from its historical average .


3.-At Friday's close, with a consensus that rises to 5% (I still believe very optimistic consensus) BPA11 core growth of the members of the Ibex 35, the facts tell us that we are at a level of contributions PER11 means of 9.793 times the BPA11 (remember that historical average amounts to 14.1 times, ie over 44% more ).

This means that:
.) earnings yield on the Ibex 35 reaches the 10.211% nominal (!!!),
.) earnings equivalent to a real yield of 6.382% (!!!),
. ), ie a real yield differential with the sovereign yield weighted asset base for institutions of 486pb Ibex35 (!!!),
.) remember that the historical average difference is both real yields only 238 bp (which, together with average real rate of sovereign assets together makes a real rate of traditional joint 5 / 5, 5% to offset the risk of prime assets in equities).
words, the current differential, which is more than double its level, historic, clearly corresponds to periods of strong black economic recession combined with high inflation and / or panic political / social ...
... and much I swear and swearing, and for many dis-qualifications that we put the des-government we have in Spain and the vast majority of its 17 Españita ... I sincerely believe not justified in any way.

Still less occurs precisely in the selective index more internationally diversified (more than other European indices, and even more than the indices "Use").
Another significant fact is that, if observed, the current real earnings yield (and its current difference with the real yield of sovereign assets) is important enough to support an increase of power without having to suffer contributions.



For these reasons, it is clearly justified equity markets (and, especially, English) have increased their contributions despite all the macro events and geopolitical pressures.
As we said last week, the situation was historically aberrant .
On a few occasions we encountered a similar situation this difference between structural economic science and reality of Don Mercado (March 2003 to March 2009), and sooner or later had to be renewed.


However, it is clear, AFDR by the rise of this week should not mean only the first step in the right direction .
The lower level (10,416 ) of the band conservative in that we are still closer (the travel bearish potential 2.7%) than its higher level ( 11217.2), which provides a tour upside of 4.7% (assuming that remain current inflation assumptions and yield sovereign assets) .



We see the view of analysts other currents, and the market participants :
* 1 * friends ATs are mostly neutral, with a deflection midway between the bulls and bears. This can be considered a step towards AFDR since last week was almost unanimous bassist.
* 2 * The AFFS friends raise their upward bias. Believe that we approach a period in which the seasonal pattern is bullish on tax issue "use" as well as corporate operations have increased, the insiders have left to be bearish, and institutional positions as well.
* 3 * For actual participants :
.) Indeed, as noted in recent collaborations, both insiders participants (see the collaboration http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03 / insiders.html) as institutional investors (the last mention you can see it in collaboration http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03/comentarios-mercado-25mar11.html PD) have moved to a position Neutral.
.) For gazelles, the AAII survey tells us (see the collaboration http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03/comentarios-21mar11.html) that have increased their pessimism (as seen on Monday had even become mostly bearish), which is considered bullish sign.
.) Similarly, the strong hands CTAs (see the collaboration http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03/comentarios-21mar11.html) are upward (56%), but their optimism has fallen coyunturalmente-no we can ignore the proximity to natural and nuclear disaster Japanese, and the start of military action in Libya. If we see their average monthly (which is real given the predictive value of temporary circumstances because it avoids the short-sighted), which is still bullish with a 60.75% level.
* 4 * In terms specifically our Ibex35 Interestingly think:
.) The turnover bullish sessions has been very important (especially Monday's session, which originated the rotation), while negotiating the only day Bassist-Friday-was very low.
.) The borrowed shares outstanding (instrument used by bassists strong hands), has grown little in TEF and BBVA, while even fallen in SAN.

short, we see that both analysts and participants appear to be reducing its outlook / attitude downward, with bull minority tendency.



I have not the ball of the future.
But I do believe firmly in the science of economic structure.
And the facts have shown me over and over again.
And the only time I chickened out, I paid the consequences.
why I can affirm, and affirm, that sooner or later we will have a reaction to put things in place .
is absurd and untenable to continue with the active "no risk" overestimated (the English bond is also in real terms, unless inflation falls seriously), while, in parallel, international assets domiciled in Spain (which, even as the case of SAN, have lower cost of default insurance commitments) have an intrinsic underestimation aberrant.


This afternoon we continue with the shareholder, greetings, and enjoy this Saturday's spring

How Long Does An Abscess Take To Drain

Insiders

been a long time to talk about the insiders (executives and directors of companies).
The reason was none other than because they have already many weeks that have been selling.
And, as you know, in this case are not an indicator of anything (can sell for many reasons, not necessarily because they provide poor prospects for their companies).

The track is especially when insiders are buyers .
It is a very effective indicator in such cases. Clearly
insiders historically buyers are usually a good sign upward, always talking about the medium term, as short-term purchases sometimes appear too early, while still producing downs. Remember

the level of 2.5 is considered neutral reading.

The average ratio of the last 8 weeks (which is used to avoid distortions STS) is 4.9 (from 5.5 in the previous week, and until 9 weeks ago).
This shows us the insiders but vendors still declining. But the news

remarkable the real novelty is that this week, finally, after many weeks, the weekly ratio 2.5 mark (from 4.9 last week and to 11 a few weeks ago.) Eye
with this because as we see in a week has passed neutral. And
occurring just this change in perspective when you're running a quarter is the best signal we can have on corporate earnings ahead .

Greetings,

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Comments 25mar11

Oddly enough, MUCH things have changed.

Portuguese failure has put the cards on the table in our Desum, and has set the limit that the financial systems Europeans can pull your own cord .
is increasingly clear that financial systems play a lot with sovereign risk "English" and cling to any sign of the politicians around here to proclaim that "we are on the right track, though (not mistake), I can state categorically them, they know very well that what they say with small mouth, and not rely nor hair of what they say members of the gang-ruled to give us .

result, the yield of our assets has fallen sovereign (much more than what CDS has made the cost of insurance or the risk that the Kingdom of Spain can not cope their commitments).
At this hour (14:03) the English bond yield has fallen 2PB about their "close" on Friday, while the German bund has risen 9PB, which the difference between the two has dropped to 187pb .



As you can imagine, by AFDR, it comes in handy our equity.
Especially because every day that passes more and more, analysts and market participants realize that the Kingdom of Spain distances himself from the pigs on the strength, solvency, and international diversification of our global corporations .

Therefore, not surprise me that sooner or later see a good rise in the prices of the securities of corporations domiciled in Spain international prime (SAN interesting to see how it has been able to put in a few hours a broadcast without warranty outside their corporate at a price lower than the Kingdom of Spain, although the pen does not do more than repeat the severity of their risk Portuguese).

Whether there can be a time lag the timing of his friend David , and as they are confirming the data from the first quarter 2011, may have significant increases from now until late April (When publishing the good news).



Unfortunately, I am very busy (I recall that my move is day 29 and I have many things to do and prepare, including medical records, etc), and this precludes me be online and able to actively manage .
Consequently, I have strategic decisions: 1 .-

remain intact the investment.
For now still uninsured. I put the stop
10500 level (which is where I estimate should be the lower limit of the band in which we operate), which, curiously, ATD agrees with the view of his friend John (when he says "upside objectives towards which we tend. shall remain in force therefore not lost 10512). 2.-

will maintain a level of equivalent positions + / -50% building (I'll resetting when I connect, and now are at 46%).

3.-These positions have a strong coverage of 60/70% of positions (I'll resetting when I connect, and are now 67%).

Greetings,
PD "Interesting comment from friend and fellow Carpathians :" At yesterday's close institutional sales and purchases fall sharply rising moderately. With this move, the balance vendor recent days, is almost extinct and bordering on neutrality. Another important aspect to consider. "

in

http://www.serenitymarkets.com/ficha_comentario.asp?sec=9&id=107968

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IBEX - Ibex

13:35 pm

The previous track is on this link: IBEX - Follow-up (today II)

Little thing count than is now expected date for the timing of several guidelines on several indices, but it does not seem to pass anything. Yesterday nothing happened and there is still some day something may happen on Monday.

Slowly and with pessimism we scale new heights. The graph shows upside objectives towards which we tend. Remain in effect until losing the home under the guideline 10512 and 10076 for blue guideline. So if at any time they want to put more fear, may do so without altering any bullish structure.

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Monitoring - Monitoring (now II) 24mar11 market

13:30 h

settled We take for the return to 10480. There was a new high and the guideline was the fall (See: IBEX - Monitoring ) is no longer valid to predict. The peak is the latest green guideline chart drink since and now updated.

probably rectify the 10650 area from the peak (That maximum has been reached by the minimum and is likely to win him back to a few points). The following objectives are bullish on the new guideline and are already home for the 10900.

guideline of green that gave us timing (You can view it by clicking here ) in another track, I copied the green bar marked to this chart. If we yield now, the peak just at the expected timing would we confirm that we are way of the targets set in this last link.

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Comments

should be happy because the facts are confirming what we always said : 1 .-
Spain is NOT a PIG (see http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2010/10/espana-no-es-un-pig-y-su-ibex-35-es-mas.html)
2 .- The risk of financial system English in Portugal is more apparent than real (see http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2010/11/otra-mentira-mas-contra-la-banca.html).

And yet ... I do not trust nor hair of what is happening (although it benefits me.)

result, keep coverage (the base for investments and for general positions), and even recess positions to 42% capacity (benef by BBVA, IBE and ITX).

Greetings,

Edible Wafers - Calgary

IBEX - Monitoring

11:10 h

10480 These points are becoming difficult to forecast to get (See link on the last trace entry: IBEX - Monitoring ). And that little guidance, I did not draw and today it does get, has made theirs, that is, that is what has managed to decipher at what point would be the minimum (which I have drawn is red .)

bearish structure of the dwelling guideline was initiated and, therefore, there are still opportunities to visit the 10480, a few possibilities, but that can not be ruled out.

I've drawn a green guideline we has marked objectives rise from the lows yesterday. All your goals are achievable as bullish, although it exceeded the maximum of 10733, no goals described by the area arose prior to this maximum more than expected in the vicinity of 11000 (See the first chart of the last monitoring the link I put at the beginning).

Regarding the timing proposed yesterday ... for that, a failure. As for the timing of the little red guideline ... Though not as cash, half bad walk. Set a small maximum and has approached to a minimum, but the deeper minimum has not wise.

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Updated HFT 23mar11 market

* 1 * I remember writing the September 28, 2010 in http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2010/09/hft.html

* 2 * I again publicly thank his friend and fellow Carpathians by constant monitoring makes this issue.

* 3 * Specifically http://www.serenitymarkets.com/ficha_comentario.asp?sec=9&id=107678 today can see the related commentary:
"" A server that is more stubborn than Paco Martínez Soria, in Don erre que erre movie ... still insists that the slot machines keep rising and rising in its operations, bringing the risk of a devastating crash FlashCAD than any other kind of manipulation continues to grow and grow ("It is Estimated That high-frequency trading now accounts for ~ 56 Percent of U.S. equity trade volume and Almost 40 Percent of European equity trade volume ).
Look at this chart which I think is very clearly:
Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/21/rise-of- the-machines-check-out-These-hft-charts /
In order to physicians is the Church ... ...
Last week I read in the newspaper El Mundo this quote:
"On top of these movements are carried out by means of high frequency trading, ie financial transactions performed in about 0.0025 seconds automatically by computers. According to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, change hands every day 238,000 million in foreign exchange through these computers programmed by physicists, astronomers and experts in mathematics that neither know nor want to know about economics "
The result is more than evident every day, remember that neither know nor want to know, every time the market will be less logical, for now still see the underlying trend, which commands, if it continues to grow and do not know what will happen .... "

fully agree with their views.
precisely why I think that every day ATD is becoming more important friend George, and its complement of Timing of friend David .

Greetings,

Business Planon Poultry

Comments

In the lead on 24 have decided to increase coverage from the opening .
But of course, has influenced me the friend David showed us that date as a pivot for the strategic evolution has not been the only reason.
also influenced that
1.-Unlike what happened in Spain, turnover markets equity assets has been very low the last two days.
2.-As the friend Jordi, me too I think "more likely to yield to such 10480, which coincidentally, + /- coincide with the minimum of the band's conservative recession / depression .
I think it will be a powerful brake, but do not tempt the devil, as things are geopolitical.
is strong hands may want to give an appearance of weakness before the traditional start strong upward pattern of the first half of April .
3.-The strike destructive earthquake + tsunami in Japan is very serious : between 185000-308000 million dollars in property damage only , as well JLCampuzano said the friend, a strategist at Citi in Spain in http://www.serenitymarkets.com/ficha_comentario.asp?sec=9&id=107663.
This figure does not include losses in the economy or the costs of another disaster in the nuclear case. "It will also be significant," he added from the Government.
As you can imagine, in one way or another, these losses have to affect global markets for RF and RV.
We will see.
4.-We have a key day in Portugal .
'll see if they escape from the abyss. I have my doubts.


If we add all that I have moved a few days I found it impossible to follow the markets, I prefer to err on the side cover, just in case. Consequently
:
.) Keep my investments, but having taken on opening a basic coverage of 50% in the 10535 level.
.) Maintain positions in 50.4% of capacity, but increasing the coverage to 82.5% of them (on the average 10450) .


Today was published the breakdown of investments NIMB , the largest sovereign fund in the developed world, with total net assets of € 380.000M.
is also the most transparent sovereign fund in the world (you can see the breakdown of their investments in http://www.nbim.no/en/Investments/holdings-/holdings-and-voting/). Interestingly
emphasize that they have confidence in Spain and in international companies domiciled here.
The evolution of their investments in the English stock market has increased over the last three years of crisis, from € to € 5500m 3400m current.
emphasize their shares of 1.71% of SAN, TEF 1.6% and 1.5% of BBVA (three units mean the bulk of their stock investments in Spain).

regard to sovereign assets "safe" can say they have a different evolution.
.) At 10:10, the yield of the English bond is rising 4PB (6pb from Friday),
.) and the bund 1PB is falling (although 7PB up from Friday).
I doubt that they can lower their yield while still alive a warning of the ECB's next rising cost of money.

Greetings,

Prevent Socks From Slipping In Shoes

IBEX - Monitoring

00:45 h .

The former track is the link: IBEX - Monitoring .

Recitals are the same as I did on the last track and grounds at: "We got it now - DJ, SP and DAX say: Yes IBEX also . We are there before 24 and April 1 for the green guidelines and 25 for blue as timing born of them. We'll see what will become of those dates.

Top

not going to do in a straight line as we do reversals occur due to small guidelines. These setbacks, in turn, define new directions or may have objectives. Since the process is up, the minimum slope being defined guidelines positive that we will use when we reach a goal of rising to calculate possible further declines, but also in the decreases are small increases which then subside. These small increases make maximum and maximum of these guidelines can be drawn that will give intermediate (up to those proposed in the above chart), will outline the objectives or to propose a guideline bulls before uploading.

The following chart look blue guideline that occurred during a correction to initiate the upload process. We provide upside objectives to which we are today, and consequently, We started a small drop process. The fall of this guideline defining the small home, but there is a smaller guideline (which I have not drawn) which also provides the lows yesterday and its timing has been met quite well in these minima.

is important to consider the trendline I have drawn in green dots. Could mean losing overwhelmingly bearish process could run its course and that this bounce is over. But we can not conclusively assign and if so drop targets drawn, almost certainly would be checking where they are to contain the fall, primarily at 10490-10480, because that also brings another objective of the guideline I mentioned earlier not drawn. It is possible to assign the trendline and continue to rise, but it seems more likely to yield to these 10480.

Guideline and leaving home has two possible timing: I've drawn with purple dotted vertical line that marks today's 11:50 am 23 and I've drawn with the vertical line continuous purple marking at 13:25 today. So, although I can not go first thing in the market at that time I will watch to see what can happen.

How Long Do Pinot Noirs

Comments 22mar11

* 1 * One of the friends AFFS he explains about the question that we ask from the beginning of the events on flows may have to be repatriated to Japan by Japanese banks, which necessarily would come from foreign markets fixed income and / or variable (which is clear, then, that does not include flows that foreign entities have to perform out of necessity or commitments, for example, insurers / reinsurers, the amount of risk due is estimated at € 30MM, less than initially feared):
* Companies Insurance
Only 8% of its assets are overseas ($ 263MM).
But for now reiterate that can handle the payments without liquidating assets.
* Pension Funds
Their foreign assets are estimated at over $ 600MM (of a total of $ 3.4 billion).
is unlikely to see repatriation of assets, assuming that their incomes have not been affected by the earthquake.
* Families / Investment trusts
Over $ 300MM.
And in this case there are allusions to the sell-off abroad for reconstruction.
What order of magnitude we talk? It is very complicated to pin down.


* 2 * With respect to asset yield sovereign English and German, both have experienced a rise in 3PB.
result, the spread between the two remains stable.


* 3 * If anyone be interested, personally, I keep
* level positions (50.4% in capacity), but
* Strong coverage of 61.6 % of them (to an average of 10,350).
* Investments remain basic coverage,
stop having raised the level 10500 (which is where + / - should now be the limit to move to the pessimistic world recession / depression).

Greetings,

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Nearly 2,000 € per Spaniard ... IBEX

That's what it will cost the English contribution to the Permanent Rescue Fund For countries with problems., And that giving this European fund with 500,000 million, because the intention is to provide it with 700,000 million, which represent about 2,500 € per Spaniard.

also have to add all the deficits of all administrations and public companies over the years have not been offset by surpluses, whether or not represented by any issued debt.

As we deny that bad, really bad, and in some places worse than others (my community is the most indebted per citizen of the 17 there and the two villages, with apologies to Ceuta and Melilla ) can not in any way. How to stop and have a surplus for a few years is something unnatural with the politicians that we are accustomed to spending, the monumental works, to invent Memec with the intention of dazzling to themselves, spend and spend again for foreigners have boardwalks, sandy beaches, showers and recreational facilities and bullshit thousand. As politicians are our servants but they are the new masters and us their serfs, because although we are not subject to a land slaves, we are almost subject to a municipality, a council, a community, state, Europe and international agencies or intervention actions and other things that happen are international, and these politicians are not going to change but are the new owners of everything, with powers to crush what they want when they want more than you have tried that for that you make friends with judges and impose them who will be in the high courts. As never going to legislate to straighten it with his own efforts or with those who have more, but will always be with those who hardly have anything or live from a list (which I also had businesses and I know of scams that are made), with only those who are the treasury. There you go, realizing that the debt will grow and grow and grow and grow and grow and grow.

This continuous growth of debt is not ours alone, it is the entire first part of the second world and third (but so does that give us laughter encrypted). Like all the other debt we go out some surplus countries, only two things can happen: that these countries (the emerging Bric and then some) to become owners the world, or that otherwise jodamos because that debt will grow. As allowing them to not give back what is theirs not going to happen, we must prepare to have a comprehensive solution for all: a world war or destruction, or we go into as inflation spirals lower.

I do not foresee any meaningful solution to what always happens to us and inflation has eaten much of the debt. If all the first world and the second part becomes inflation would stay the same and emerging Bric and would again be screwed in debt that they have not purchased will be worth almost nothing.

QE1, QE2 and the possible QE3, and purchases of bonds from other central banks like the ECB are due to that, free cronies and friends of the future collapse of the bonds and inflation going to come.

Causes Skin Indentations

- Monitoring

9:36 pm

definitely are building the structure that provides guidance upward green and I guess we will stop at all its objectives.

Del chart yesterday and guideline structure there appeared, succeeded in reaching the ultimate goal, but now we have followed the opening up without any setback. Should take into account the leap to remember deferred goal. And is that the market seems to have taken upward force. Believe it or not, the main target remains Japan and Nikkei index, which, little by little, going influencing less after the comeback that has been doing.

As a novelty, that from today you can set timing to green guideline graph contribution. The guideline blue mark (and it is reshaping the future for Visual Chart is a little changed or inaccurate) now as an important 25th and 24th green after on 1 April. So if all goes well match the 24 or 25 will be in a upside objectives of the green.

Electric Bike Singapore Conversion Kit

Comments 21mar11

With the gap opening and stability of sovereign asset yield "safe" , the band have become conservative in the recession / depression .
This gives a positive breath, as we expected the weekend.
But we are still very close limt the minimum, so that should not be trusted.

If anyone might want to personally
* I have increased the positions (up to 46% capacity), but strongly
* coverage of 67% of them (on an average 10331).
* Investments are still basic coverage, stop having raised the 10,400 level (which is where + / - should now be the limit for passing the pessimistic world recession / depression).

will see,




As I said, I have friends who do know the energy issue.
Undoubtedly, the primum inter pares, is Roberto Centeno, who joins its broad curriculum experiential executive and management in the sector, with an experience of Economic Structure over 40 years.
Today has published its views in the article "Nuclear Risk a joke compared to liquid gas, which can be read in http://www.cotizalia.com/disparate-economico/2011/riesgo-nuclear -joke-compared-liquid-20110321-5120.html

Greetings,




The turnover today is VERY strong (TEF now exceeds 1.8% of its capital, and SAN 1, 2%).
This gives greater importance, if anything, the outcome of the battle being waged today in the equity markets between bulls and bears.

Notably TEF takes several days of heavy trading (last week exceeded 6.8% of its capital), coinciding with the rumor that we discussed about the possible acquisition of ownership of the sovereign fund of Qatar ... ¿?

Meanwhile, at 14:21 the English bond yield has fallen 1PB from its "closure" on Friday, and the German bund has risen 4PB ... consequently reducing the differential between the two in 193pb.

Until then




CFNI Vds.
You know the importance I give to this activity index national economic "use" made by the Chicago Fed, which I consider the most complete and reliable. Today has gone
posted for the February (you can see in http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/cfnai/2011/cfnai_march2011.pdf).
* In regard to the monthly indicator , the resulting index is -0.04, slightly worse than last month -0.01 (reviewed in much better than the original -0.16). Or so in terms total is down compared to last month.
* With respect to quarterly average mobile (which is the most followed by all analysts to avoid imbalances STS) the index reaches the level +0.11, +0.05 better than the previous month (which has also been revised upwards from the original -0.11).
summary, it appears that economic activity "use" is above its historical trend (which is the level 0.00) .
Good news.




Today we have a lot of news about performance of participants in equity markets :

* 1 * AAII survey of estimates of gazelles clearly indicates that they increase pessimism. In fact, the bulls have dropped last week from 36.0% to 28.5%, while the bears have risen from 32.3% to 40.1%. That is, the spread has gone from bullish to +3.7% from 7.8% bearish, which is a very clear indication that rises ahead interesting.

* 2 * There is also major news by institutional holders. As a friend points the Carpathian on its website last Friday, after the quarterly due dates of products, sales decreased slightly, while aggressively purchases increased (although the balance at the close on Friday was still seller).

* 3 * With respect to the important Market Bullish Consensus Vane (of CTAs), a clear break in its aggressive bullish forecast many previous weeks.
No doubt the extra-market events strongly affected the attitude of the CTAs.
However, the resulting ending balance remained bullish weekly (56% ), although still far from the neutrality of the 50% anyway. Just this week
becomes more important the monthly average (which is real given the predictive value because it avoids the exceptional circumstances) which is still bullish with a 60.75% level .

* 4 * The Renta 4 friends have changed their ideal portfolio Ibex35 . They have given
Inditex entry and Santander, replacing Ebro Foods and REE. Regarding
Inditex, expect the results to be published on Wednesday, "rates continue to show double-digit growth and the confidence to reiterate its policy regarding the expansion plans for the coming years."
For its part, the choice of Santander responds to these experts believe the financial sector could make up positions before a probable European Council agreement on the Stabilization Plan, allowing for greater restraint of sovereign risk.
The portfolio is comprised of (in alphabetical order):
Acerinox (which I recommend through ALB, so also participate in ACS and Prosegur, and going with a sharp discount to their NAV),
Ferrovial,
Inditex,

Santander and Telefonica.

* 5 * Meanwhile it is interesting that JP Morgan advises buying Inditex, Telefónica and Santander .
with it the three bosses "use" (BofA-ML & Goldman & JP Morgan) have advocated publicly in a few days to buy SAN and TEF. Of the three European brass (DB & HSBC & UBS) only the latter did not take such a recommendation for those corporations with global scope.

Greetings,




For my part, I positions increased to> 50% capacity without changing the coverage (going down to 61% of positions).

Greetings,




Trading volume fell not .
In the case of the three musketeers:
* BBVA (+91 M shares) 2.1% capital
* TEF (+93 M shares) 2.00% capital
SAN (+111 M shares) 1.4% capital

Greetings ,




A dozen English brands, led by Santander, Movistar and BBVA, appear among the 500 most valuable brands worldwide , according to the ranking prepared by "Brand Finance ', which puts Google as the most valuable teaching, ahead of Microsoft and Wal-Mart, which gives it the first post he occupied last year.
* Specifically, Santander ranks 15 ranking with a brand value $ 26.150M (€ 18.460M) , making the entity Cantabria in the 4 th financial institution worth mark, second only to Bank of America (6), Wells Fargo (9) and HSBC (11).
* On the other hand, Movistar is number 51, with a brand value of $ 14.935M (€ 10.543M), which serves to position itself as the 6 th global operator brand value, second by Vodafone (5), AT & T (10), Verizon (12), China Mobile (25) and Orange (29). *
BBVA ranks is 79, twelve positions below the place occupied in 2010 with a brand value of $ 10.728M (€ 7.573M).

Greetings,




NOTE at the end

* 1 * negotiation of the three musketeers in today has been:
* SAN = 138.60 M shares (= 1, 64% capital),
* TEF = 105.55 M shares (capital = 2.31%),
* BBVA shares = 100.32 M (= 2.23% capital).
In my opinion, I think that trading volume reinforces the value of higher today for their contributions.

* 2 * The "closing" of today English bond yield has been lower than Friday 2PB.
The bund yield, by contrast, has risen 6pb today.
result, the differential between the bond yield and the bund fell today 8PB (up to 190pb).

* 3 * NO has been no relevant changes in borrowed shares outstanding SAN-TEF-BBVA.

Goodnight

A Acrostic Poem For Respiration

IBEX - Monitoring

11:45 h.

As

Sunday commented: "We went Now - DJ, SP and DAX say: Yes IBEX also our IBEX has broken the upper trendline. Now has already made a pullback and I hope they confirm what I mentioned in that post yesterday.

have performed the objectives of the graph will be only a guideline that little blue. The next thing to do is much more interesting and is described in yesterday's post above.

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Updated AFD (R) 20mar11-party shareholder

* 1 * The values \u200b\u200bthat undoubtedly deserve AFDR overweight, having an aberrant intrinsic underestimation (PER11 less than 7.5 times), with an earnings yield of 13.3% nominal , equivalent to 9.4% in real terms, ie 6.2 times the actual yield bond Kingdom of Spain (!) (despite a lower cost of default insurance on it), a level equivalent to periods of financial crash: SAN
* (*)
* BBVA (*)

* 2 * values \u200b\u200bthat deserve a neutral weighting, or, if desired, with slight overweight, having a significant underestimation inherent to international and / or sectoral (PER11 less than 8.25 times), with an earnings yield of 12.12% in nominal terms, equivalent to 8.2% real , ie 5 4 times the actual yield of the bond of the Kingdom of Spain: MAP
* (**)

* 3 * Values \u200b\u200bthat deserve to be in the portfolios, but with underweight, or if you wish to neutral weight, having underestimation inherent to international and / or sectoral (PER11 less than 9.15 times), with an earnings yield of 10.93% nominal, equivalent to 7.07% real, ie almost 4.7 times the yield real the bond of the Kingdom of Spain): TEF
* * ABG
(***) (**)

He further stocks with above-average PER11 Ibex35, but with a earnings yield above 6 % real :
* FCC (**)
* ELE (**)
* ENG *
ACS
* GAS
* OHL (**)
* REP

(*) I consider it Importantly, despite the worsening of the real and psychological situation of the English economy in general and the English financial sector in particular (whose punishment accounting is reflected in the new financial statements published), the consensus of analysts has slightly improved its fundamental outlook for the two macro internationally diversified banks established in Spain on the ground that, even in the worst case of domestic market expansion and increased market where the quasi have 100% of their investments over the past ten years, more than compensate.
In fact, the current consensus PO (78 analysts, according to Bloomberg, and Reuters FacSet) for SAN is € 10.22 per share (ie a minimum travel upside of 23.2%), which would mean a PER11 of 8.18 times for a BPA11 of € 1.25.
In case of BBVA, the PO current consensus (61 analysts) to BBVA is € 10.15 per share (ie a minimum upside potential route of 25.1%), which would mean a PER11 of 8.25 times for a BPA11 of € 1.23. Both are currently listed

even below its book value (at end 2010 was € 8.58 to € 8.34 for SAN and BBVA). We talk about book value, and not replacement value, which would be much higher.

personally think that this consensus are very pessimistic, and I think it will be revised upwards. After my update AF these days, I have every confidence that both entities will improve seriously its BPAs in 2011.
.) On the one hand, with enhanced operational scope,
.) Moreover, the penalty will not book this year,
.) And, thirdly, to improve its efficiency ratio (in part due to synergies). Therefore
give them a joint weighting of 50% stock portfolio, aggressively overweight in SAN (whose apparent intrinsic underestimation has been demonstrated by the weight given to 1.9% of its Chilean subsidiary to launch an IPO for institutional investors purchased mostly by Chilean institutions knowledgeable asset value = 14.8% of market capitalization of the entire group SAN).

(**) Note: double asterisk note to those who are controlled by a natural person or legal entity, which will depend on the entity. (***)

should take into account what is stated in my contribution "Mirages accounting for lack of real benefits (see http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/02/espejismos-contables-falta-de.html ), because both values \u200b\u200bin 2010 have been engineered to use accounting to show a profit brilliant thing I can not repeat in 2011.
addition, in the case of TEF should take into account that in collaboration "Beware of TEF-confirmation, which can be seen in http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/02/cuidado-con-tef-confirmacion.html.
it is also true that your price is too low for a classical value "cash cow" and are "Matilda", with additional possibilities of growth factors.
(NOTE) And do not forget

ALB, whose share price means an excessive punishment on its NAV (which, as demonstrated by placement of a package of ACS, NOT deserve it), including significant liquidity.
believe that ALB is a bet on how to bet door prize values \u200b\u200bvaried all diversified internationally, and has excellent intrinsic value .

Good Night, and who has luck tomorrow (it will mean good news, at least for the Japanese and the Libyans),

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Updated AFD (R) 20mar11-party general

Unfortunately, today we are forced to admit that have entered the market in the world pessimistic depressive phase recessive.
And this only happens when the economy is in deep recession, or when the hysteria dominates the performance of the participants. Choose Vds. the cause.

funny thing is that this situation is unique to the English selective , more precisely the index linked to emerging countries, with over 57% of the income of its members is generated outside Spain, especially in Latin American countries, where the economic situation is far from being described as in crisis.


And this important detail we should pay attention.
Despite having a bunch (with apologies to the gang) policy, which, at least from the point of view, it is certainly the worst in more than seventy years, at least. SAN
(25.8% and 20.82% respectively) + TEF (24.3% and 23.58% respectively) + BBVA (16.3% and 9.72% respectively), corporate real multinationals based in Spain, accounting for 66.4% of the trading volume of the Ibex 35, and 54.12% of its market capitalization weighting.
Of course, its divisions and national activities suffer, much, with the current recession which we have been this reckless gang of political, theoretical and illuminated. BUT
have international diversification of such importance (in any of the three national activity is even 30% of total), more than compensates them.
and continue compensating them.



Let the facts and actual data:

numbers and calculations at the close of last Friday we suggest:
1.-The sovereign asset yield declined in general for all sovereign assets:
.) The yield of the English bond 28pb fell in the week (more than 5.1% in one week), reducing to 198pb differential with the German bund.
In real terms the yield has fallen to 1.506%, further away from its historical average,
.) On the German bund 4PB has dropped, falling to 1.058% real, which is a lower level not only below its historical average, but also the Germans deflated bond (a meaningless aberration),
.) and the bond "use" 11pb also dropped, falling to 1.156% of its real level, well below its historical average, and less than the deflated bond "use" (although in this case is justified by massive purchases of IyII Fed and QE).

As you can see, in all cases the real yield of sovereign assets is well below its historical average , so clearly allows an increase of the nominal interest (unless inflation down), without need seen as a problem. Everything
published using the rise of sovereign asset yield as an excuse for a potential bajonazo of equity markets makes no sense, and smells like pens drones.


2.-With this, the nominal yield sovereign weighted asset base for institutions Ibex35 has dropped significantly this week (4.98%) to 4.968% .
In real terms, the sovereign yield weighted asset base for institutions Ibex35 (1.3205% ) greatly increases their low compared to historical average.


3.-At Friday's close, with a consensus that rises to 4% core growth BPA11 of the members of the Ibex 35, the facts tell us that we level quote that means a PER11 of 9.444 times the BPA11 (remember that the historical average amounts to 14.1 times, ie more than 49% more ).

This means that:
.) Earnings yield the Ibex 35 reached 10.589% nominal (!!!),
.) earnings equivalent to a real yield of 6.746% (!!!),
.) ie real yield differential with the sovereign yield weighted asset base for institutions of 524pb Ibex35 (!!!),
.) remember that the historical average difference of two real yields 238pb is only (which together with average real rate of sovereign assets together makes a real rate of traditional joint + / -5% to offset the risk of prime equity assets).
words, the current differential , which is more than double its level, historic, clearly corresponds to the dark periods of strong economic recession combined with high inflation and / or panic political / social ...
... and , as much as I swear and swearing, and for many dis-qualifications that we put the des-government we have in Spain and the vast majority of its 17 Españita ... I sincerely believe that there is no justification in any way. Fewer still

occurs precisely in the more diversified internationally selective index (more than other European indices, and even more than the indices "Use").



short, nothing can be added by AFDR. Spare us the "R" .
As we said before, we are in a situation of hysteria / panic that can not be analyzed in terms of structural economic science.

All we can do is:
a) describe the situation as it is, and identify the level that would come out of it (10447.9) , that is, a stone's throw (only 1.16 % of rise), as long as we continue with the current asset bubble sovereign (so we can define when real yields are even lower than circumstantially assets deflated),

b) and also describe in my "days" of stock life I I found on a few occasions in a similar situation this difference between the structural economic science and reality of Don Market.
remember such moments:
.) In the summer of 87 the situation was so absurd as the present, but conversely,
.) same thing happened to the end of 2000, 99/inicio ,
.) And again it happened again, but in the sense that now, late 2002 and 2008 ... Fortunately
in all of them clearly AFDR
warned me (and all of them positioned correctly ... except me on the last occasion, in which the failure of the end of 2002, I chickened out and came to believe that the structural science was being overcome by the facts ... and the beast attacked me with the wrong foot, reacting belatedly).
As you can see, in all, after a period of suffering, latent losses, and doubts ... in the end the "homo sapiens" beat "homo histericus" .


I have not the ball of the future.
But I do believe firmly in the science of economic structure.
And the facts have shown me over and over again.
And the only time I chickened out, I paid the consequences .

why I can affirm, and affirm, that sooner or later we will have a reaction to put things in place .
is absurd and untenable to continue with the active "no risk" Overrated (and so is English bond in real terms, unless inflation falls seriously), while, in parallel, international assets domiciled in Spain (which even have lower cost of default insurance commitments) have an intrinsic underestimation aberrant.

This afternoon we continue with the shareholder, greetings, and enjoy this Sunday's spring



NOTE
Encouraged by what we share a friend Jordi "We got it now - DJ, SP DAX and say: Yes IBEX also " (see http://operarbolsa.blogspot.com/2011/03/subimos-ya-dj-spy-dax-dicen-si-el-ibex.html) and before he exposed his views on the Ibex 35,
... I decided to calculate the upper limit conservative band (which, as we have seen, NO we, being situated English selection index below its lower limit) of the recession / depression .
The upper limit of this band is conservative (late Friday) 11254.2 level (ie 8.96% of distance.
That should be (AFDR) the primary objective that we would have if upward rotation) .

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"We got it now - DJ, SP and DAX say: Yes, the IBEX, too. At the end of today

March 24 appears to be very important, originally came out on 22 but has been refined to 24, may be 28 (two trading days after 24) for the DAX. I put links on this subject: Timing - Let's start so difficult - Timming lightly on DJ, SP500, IBEX, SAN - Timing - Precipitation Event DJ, SP and IBEX - IBEX - Monitoring - Timing March. Therefore, according to David (Catarrochí) from 22 to 24 could be developed on the falls, but I have none so clear and I started to say that maybe that day 24 for either a relative maximum. In this letter Today I can still see the same thing, we rebound and that there are targets up there very interesting. Noted, too, that the minimum of this week appeared on my date calculations. In principle, did not know if they were to have minimum or maximum around day 15 or 16. Now, I have been minimal, given the evidence given and because I think by 24 we will not fall over, if they fall, having preferred the word "think" because the 24 can be another minimum and I walk very foolish.

The Dow Jones Industrial tells us has two objectives and one of the dates of the timing of the guideline blue. One this dual purpose is a second and it is likely that the less rebound, as is already done, but the coincidence of at least twofold date and makes me think of increases to stay a little longer. Shown in the chart on 24 as the second day of timing. That day, or close to it, I hope the price of the 12300 DJ grazing, which is a dual purpose area of \u200b\u200bthe green guidelines.

With the S & P 500 happens like that. Day 16 (the timing marked the day 15) reached the second target can be seen in the graph and subsequently brought a rebound (described by the small green guideline), I hope you get at least the 132x, which may be 1340, and the next day timing, that is, on 24 March.

The DAX also remains crippled and has reached the ultimate goal of continuous blue guideline. The same meter is used to setbacks this guideline and the blue dots. The two guidelines produce moments of timing, being expressed in the graph with continuous vertical lines guideline for the continuous and dashed dotted guideline. The day marked 15 and 16 days minimum timing of the two guidelines, but opted for the blue continuum, because it only under those lows. Therefore, although the figure is marking the day 25 as you can come up with something, I think is more significant on day 28 is only 2 days away from bag 24.

So next I hope to see the DAX 28 or the 6915 or much earlier, in 7110 or los7175. I did not draw the small guideline that gives these objectives not to saturate the chart.

the February 20 put the following entry: Indexes targeted. Indices, including the Nikkei were to go down. I point this because the earthquake suffered on March 11 only worsened a lot of falls, but fate somehow it was written. More than the destination, dates and places you can get the price they achieve something. I do not know what the earthquake did not know how they would do to lower your rate, but has reached an important goal and one day after the timing for guideline that gives the target. These things are not coincidence. What could have reached another goal? Of course. What could have missed that day which gives the timing? Totally true, but has been an important objective and fair in the timing.

had blue Guideline objectives fall in its third or fourth play, but suddenly (as minimal as earlier this guideline is usually going to build the meter kicks or drop goals giving Upload deeper or higher) has given us its full range goals. The only guideline dwelling reprofiling and confirmed where the fall was coming.

The index is on the rebound, but if it goes nuclear fear, this rebound may be the beginning of sustained increases since the panic already bought. Although the Nikkei so far we have left now is very significant what happens because if you climb, climb, and if low, do not know what. The fall has been very fast and has left few clues on the road. Friday is the highest goal, but I think it will go to 10000 and a few points because there are two objectives. I attach more importance to the possible rise which would confirm the previous rates and ours. I may be mistaken, but if you climb, climb.

for the final our IBEX. Last Writer the night of October 16, although we were in 17 . What happened at the Japanese nuclear plant was improved and there was rebound.

Friday The maximum rise is a goal that I have not drawn, being more likely to go up, going for the objectives you still have to achieve the guideline that has provided little this maximum and the last day 16 (not drawn either.) If this happens, the trend line (blue dots) than in the area I dotted with red, would be traversed upward and rises could be much more substantial. I hope so.

Figure I lightened the maximum for the last time he appeared.

If everything starts to rise, it is likely that the next day 24 or 25 we are in the 10950 or the 11150. IBEX is the only index that is also being advanced, not giving me the confidence, because remember what I put in the last follow , close to the goal and fall that had not yet have done. But having said the above, if the other up we will do the same, and green guideline following chart is one that can command price increases.